Brian’s Briefs, written and compiled Monday through Friday by Brian Weide, SunStar Mortgage Services
Friday, June 29, 2012
As I mentioned yesterday, bonds and Mortgage-backed Securities have been flip-flopping around like water on a hot skillet the last 10 days or so, and today was no exception. While closing off their lows, both securities closed lower today after having rallied yesterday. Data was mildly bond-friendly overall. Personal Income rose by .2%, which was twice the rate expected (see Moving the Market). Personal Spending was unchanged for May against expectations of +.1%. Core PCE Prices, which is a favorite gauge of the Fed in measuring inflation, as it works with consumer’s actual spending habits instead of a fixed “basket of goods” as does the CPI, was up by .1% vs. consensus estimates of .2%.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index landed at 52.9 for June- real close to estimates of 53.0 but not quite there. Finally, the final read for June for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey reported at 73.2; again, below estimates of 74.1. So with the exception of Personal Income, all the stats were below estimates, but yet very close; hence my insinuation that bonds were mildly supported by these numbers. However, data was not the main driver for bonds today. First off, stocks were strongly into rally mode (Dow +277.83 at 12880.09, Nasdaq +85.56 at 2935.05, S&P +33.12 at 1362.16), being buoyed by news that Eurozone officials have opened the door for Spain’s banks to be directly recapitalized with bailout funds once Europe sets up a single banking supervisor. Moreover, Spain will not have to take on additional sovereign debt.
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